Mar 23, 2026
3 min read
The Corona pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in the economy, including the stock market.A war in Iran may now bring down the AI boom.
Artificial Intelligence and Iran Crisis Fears Return to Growing Industry
The author's subjective view on the subject.This opinion should not be adopted by anyone, but it may be thought provoking.
What distinguishes opinion from news. The coronavirus pandemic has already exposed the vulnerability of the economy, including stock markets.The Iran war could now derail the AI boom.
When the Iran war began, memories of this epidemic were awakened: like them, the war in the Middle East affected many other sectors - chip manufacturing in Asia, Silicon Valley and ultimately a staggering number of companies and their customers.Helium is missing in the chip manufacturing process.The same goes for liquefied natural gas (LNG).Particularly affected: the semiconductor industry.Much depends on one supplier: Qatar.Now what would happen without it?
Antje Erhard has worked as a journalist and TV presenter for nearly 20 years.Her path took her away from dpa-AFX news agency, among others.to ZDF.She currently works for ARD's financial editorial team in Frankfurt and reports daily on what's happening in the world, stock markets and business.
Shortly after the start of the war in Iran the stocks of chip manufacturing companies experienced a strong volatility.At first things went downhill.Example: TSMC.Shares of the chip manufacturer, which produces other Nvidia, temporarily fell 6-7% on the day.Securities of semiconductor producer SK Hynix were also affected.Although the stock has recovered a little, it is clear: the concern about the war has reached the chip industry and artificial intelligence.The results will be far-reaching, for various reasons.
Qatar is short of helium
On the one hand, raw materials such as helium may become scarce. Asia amachitenga makamaka kuchokera ku Qatar. But since Qatar was forced to close its most important liquefied natural gas plant, helium is also missing. The noble gas is created during the production of LNG and is no longer produced. In addition, supply chains are being interrupted. Ships have stopped entering Asia through the Strait of Hormuz because Iran has blocked this waterway. And airspace too closed. Like many other products (plastics, fertilizers), helium remains outside the region. The catch: helium is essential and cannot be replaced.
Geht das so weiter und fehlt Helium in der Chip-Produktion in Asien bei TSMC, Samsung und Co., werden weniger Chips hergestellt, im schlimmsten Fall müssen Produktionsanlagen angehalten werden. Und wenn sie dann wieder laufen, wann auch immer, werden sie es vermutlich zu zunächst höheren Kosten tun. SK Hynix hat von sich aus geäußert: Sie haben alternative Lieferungen und genug auf Lager, kein Problem. Andere Hersteller sind da etwas schmallippiger.
Taiwan and South Korea produce about 80 percent of the world's memory chips.If any part of it fails, it would have a domino effect: Tesla, Nvidia, Apple - all those who need these chips - will no longer be able to produce their products - from cars to mobile phones - in sufficient quantities.
There has been a shortage of chips recently, but for other reasons: the US cut off supplies from China.When the ban was lifted, China did not act on its own initiative.At some point an agreement was reached.It was quite exciting for the industry.
Demand has increased significantly
Noch ist es nicht so weit, dass Chips in rauen Mengen fehlen. Aber grundsätzlich ist die Situation aktuell noch riskanter als vor sechs Jahren zu Corona-Zeiten, denn die Nachfrage ist durch KI stark gestiegen. Vor allem die margenstarken KI-Rechenzentren, die wie Pilze aus dem Boden schießen, zwacken viel Nachfrage ab, sodass Kapazitäten bei Smartphones, Autos, Computern etc. fehlen.
At the same time, there is a shortage of liquid gas - LNG.The Emirates of Qatar is the second largest supplier of LNG in the world.Since the country was forced to close its factories, much of the production has stopped.LNG is becoming increasingly scarce and this is causing prices to rise.And oil prices have also gone up.Asia is particularly dependent on oil from the Middle East, as it gets most of its oil from there.
energy is becoming more expensive
Here, too, the results are equally important: more expensive energy naturally makes the data center more expensive to operate.They spend a lot of energy on the one hand for their cooling system and on the other hand for their computer power.LNG from the Middle East is one of the most important requirements for the Asian semiconductor industry.
The United States is now a major source of LNG and helium.But Americans need both. China produces almost no helium, but apparently gets some from Russia.Some of it, the German Raw Materials Agency suspects, appears to end up in Europe, but not on a large scale.Because the transport capacity is not enough.Russia is no longer allowed to export to the EU.
Possible consequences of the growth of AI
The following questions therefore arise: If there is a shortage of helium and LNG, if chips start to run out, what does this mean for the AI industry?If construction projects have to stop here – for now – and fewer data centers can be built, if Middle Eastern hubs like the Emirates are attacked and their demand for chips subsequently drops, then we have to ask: what does this all mean for the AI boom?
Without further increases in the number of data centers, it will at least slow down.How much cannot be said yet.What does this do to the valuations of companies in this industry?Which risk scenarios are priced in the stock market and which are not?
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So far, the concerns have not been resolved.It was hoped that the war would soon be over, and that goods and reserves would still be available.In the following days or weeks, these questions will become more intense.
- it was me
