US war on Iran: China leaves Trump hungry

Donald Trump postponed a visit to China because of the war with Iran For Xi Jinping, the rise in the Gulf is a risk, but in the medium term, Beijing will benefit from Trump's policies and the weakness of the United States.

Iran war and China, Trump puts emergency brake on

Donald Trump postpones visit to China due to war with Iran.For Xi Jinping, escalation in the Persian Gulf poses a threat, but in the medium term, Trump’s policies and a weakening United States will benefit Beijing.

They have a "very good" relationship.Donald Trump constantly emphasizes this when asked about Chinese leader Xi Jinping.This was also the case at the White House last Monday.In fact, the American president wanted to visit Beijing between March 31 and April 2.But now Trump has postponed the trip at short notice."I look forward to meeting him," he told reporters.I think it's important to stay." The American president pulls on the brakes.

Trump actually wanted to go to China as a winner, a show of strength against Xi Jinping behind his back.In January, the US captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, and at war with Iran, the American administration hoped for a quick change of power in Tehran.The latter was an illusion: In the Persian Gulf, Trump is at war with no exit plan, which caused the world oil crisis by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is under enormous pressure, both domestically and internationally.And despite its vast military superiority, it could be strategically defeated in the war unless the Iranian regime collapses.

China, on the other hand, is standing up to Trump's military interventions - and not without reason.On the one hand, the escalations are a nuisance for Xi Jinping.Trump's attacks against Maduro and the Iranian regime have hit two Chinese allies.The People's Republic depends on external supplies of raw materials and receives about a sixth of its crude oil from Iran and Venezuela.It's over now.

On the other hand, the Americans in the Gulf are beating themselves up - and this is a political gift to China.Because while Mr. Trump is sowing chaos around the world, the Chinese leadership can show itself as a responsible superpower.At the same time, the People's Republic can use the weakening of the American military to advance its military plans.

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Trump is creating uncertainty in China

Trump has long been a nightmare for the Chinese leadership.Not only because his strong and aggressive words do not suit the quiet political style of the Chinese people.But the American president is seen as chaotic, even impulsive.Trump is a factor of confusion that makes planning difficult for Xi.On the other hand, Beijing is playing the patience game, pursuing its ambitious political goals for a long time.

At the start of Trump's first term, Washington and Beijing were still trying to improve their relationship.In April 2017, Xi visited the US president at his Mar-a-Lago estate and met Trump's granddaughter Arabella Kushner, who was just five years old at the time and was already learning Mandarin.

According to the American media, Trump's daughter, Ivanka, also became a "secret diplomatic weapon" during the US president's last visit to Beijing in November 2017. At that time, Trump showed a video of his grandson Xi Jinping singing a Chinese song. Beijing, in turn, welcomed the US president and his wife Melania in ceremonies called a "Plus State Visit" and a private tour of the Forbidden City in Beijing.

At the time, people in Beijing believed that Trump could be manipulated politically by flattering his ego.It was a mistake.China has always been clear that conflicts with the US are inevitable as the People's Republic attacks American global hegemony. But Xi Jinping wanted to postpone this conflict as long as possible.

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So when Trump launched a tariff war against the People's Republic of China in 2018, linking it to the large trade deficit between the US and China, it came as a surprise to China.In 2020, the US president accused China of the epidemic.Although the origin of the outbreak is suspected in the Chinese province, the US president has criticized Beijing for its distraction from managing the crisis.

This recent past has left its mark, making Beijing more wary of its relationship with President Trump.

America is asking for help

So when Trump talks about "very good" relations with Xi, it's mostly a masquerade.It is also clear to the American president: China is the most dangerous rival for the Americans, and the attention of American security policy has been increasingly focused on the conflict with the People's Republic for years.The Americans strengthened their military presence in the Pacific and their military cooperation with countries such as Japan.

So Trump may want to go to a tough Beijing.Instead, he emerged as Xi's candidate.The US president has asked China to support the US in protecting the Strait of Hormuz, as the Iranians block the important sea trade route.

But why should Xi Jinping help Trump?

At least oil tankers supplying oil to China seem to be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.Besides, war with Iran is useful for China and America.Also, the missiles and missiles launched in this war cannot be used to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack.Beijing's main goal is to force reunification with the island republic, so US military weakness suits China.

A dilemma for China

So, on the one hand, the Iran war is a political gift for Xi, as he can weaken Trump with diplomatic assertiveness but remain passive.China has been doing this for years regarding the war in Ukraine.Beijing calls for peace, but continues to support Vladimir Putin.China can also control how the Europeans use their military resources.At the same time, the People's Republic of China presents itself as a responsible superpower to many developing and emerging countries that do not initiate or participate in these wars.

Thus Xi Jinping may benefit from the current global chaos, but he is also in an ambivalent position.

China has learned from the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last year.Beijing has significantly expanded its oil reserves to 1.2 billion barrels and relies heavily on short-term renewable energy - this keeps China's economy strong.But China's economy is struggling and still depends on foreign oil.Therefore, Beijing is probably not interested in a long-term war in the Gulf or an insecure growth in maritime trade routes.

In addition, China and Russia are increasingly facing political problems.Because Xi and Putin have made strategic alliances with countries like Iran.Now it will be more clear that these agreements are not very suitable if the United States decides to intervene.This not only reduces Sino-Russian influence, but also weakens security agreements such as the Shailand Cooperation Organization, which Xi established as a counterweight to Western institutions.

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The current US intervention shows that China's allies will have to survive without much support in an emergency.The consequences could be disastrous: More countries, like North Korea, could seek nuclear weapons to protect themselves—and that, for the time being, is not in China's interest either.

- Personal research

- bbc.com: Trump wants to delay meeting with XI in China.

- edition.cnn.com: Trump needs China's help to solve global oil crisis.It's not easy to play (English)

- spiegel.de: Trump's Iran war makes China look good

- tagesschau.de: China criticizes announcement of US tariffs against Iran

- zeit.de: Donald Trump postpones trip to China due to war in Iran

- n-tv.de: Trump cancels trip to China on short notice