Rude awakening during war with Iran for Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel's prime minister has not met Iran's war goals.But now Trump is drawing the line again—and Netanyahu will have to follow.

The Iran ceasefire: A rude awakening for Netanyahu

The prime minister of Israel has not achieved his war goals in Iran.But Trump is drawing the line again — and Netanyahu must follow suit.

A few weeks ago, the world looked good for Benjamin Netanyahu.For decades, the Israeli leader has been dreaming of a major attack on his "great enemy" Iran.At the end of February, this wish came true.Jerusalem, standing shoulder to shoulder with its allies in Washington, attacked the regime of Tehran.Netanyahu won.

Just a month later, the tide has turned.The temporary truce with Iran that US President Donald Trump announced over the head of his Israeli friend is a rude awakening for him.Netanyahu has such dire consequences that he has to bear accusations from his own country's opposition that he is a total failure.

None of the goals Israel set at the beginning of the war has yet been achieved.The Iranian regime is stubbornly clinging to power despite a major blow to its top leadership.The slain leaders have long since been replaced.Iran still possesses 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make "dirty bombs" or worse.Even the threat from the ballistic missile program has not gone away.

Military successes – but no strategic victory

There is no doubt that Israel has caused serious damage to the regime in Tehran.But in Iran, what is also one of Netanyahu's biggest problems is repeated in other places like the Gaza Strip: the army has achieved significant successes militarily.But the head of government cannot turn it into a strategic victory.

The change in relations with the US is likely to upset him.Relations with Washington were closer than ever.Backed by Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu has presented himself as a strong actor in the region.The temporary truce with Tehran was largely negotiated by the US, leaving Netanyahu with no choice but to signal his support.

Trump is now in control.Israel, which is not expected to participate in the upcoming negotiations, must remain.Meanwhile, Netanyahu can continue the war in Lebanon.

Relations with the United States are likely to be difficult for an unpredictable president as well as for the American people. Israel's reputation, already tarnished by the Gaza war, has been further tarnished by the Iran war. A growing number of Americans accuse Netanyahu of dragging the country into an unwanted war and enduring its economic collapse.

Israel's head of government has faced similar criticism from the Gulf states, some of which have been hurt more by Iran's competition than the Jewish state. Only the United Arab Emirates wants to deepen its ties with Israel.Otherwise, the country is primarily seen as an aggressive troublemaker in the region.

War with Hezbollah will never be a solution.

The fact that Netanyahu is sticking to his belligerent rhetoric and insisting that he can resume attacks on Iran at any time may also have to do with domestic political considerations.

At the beginning of the war, even the opposition was almost completely behind the attacks on the Tehran regime.But there have long been voices raising serious doubts about whether the high price for such a small gain was worth it.In light of this fall's elections, such an outcome would amount to a crushing blow for Netanyahu.

The ongoing attacks against the Iranian-controlled Hezbollah in Lebanon, where the prime minister is currently firmly entrenched, are unlikely to offer him a way out.Even now, his own army admits that it is difficult to destroy the Shia militias in this way.Instead, Israel, which is now suspected of having torpedoed the ceasefire, is becoming increasingly isolated on the international stage.

How serious Netanyahu's announcement that he will now negotiate a peace settlement with the Lebanese government remains to be seen.And on that front, there are no signs of relief yet.Beirut is asking for a ceasefire before negotiations start.Tehran threatens to leave the agreement if the violence continues.But Netanyahu keeps firing.