Trump Returns to Iran: What Made Him Leave

Just before the expiration of the dramatic ultimatum on Iran, Donald Trump surprisingly pulled the trigger.What is hidden behind the withdrawal of the American president and what are the consequences for the world.

"TACO TUESDAY" Here's What's Behind Trump's Amazing Response

Shortly before the end of the dramatic ultimatum against Iran, Donald Trump suddenly pulled the plug.What is behind the withdrawal of the US President and what are the consequences for the world?

The so-called "Taco Tuesday" has long been a part of everyday culture in the United States. Every Tuesday, many restaurants across the country offer fried tacos. When it comes to Mexican food, it's a small weekly event, almost a ritual.

On the other hand, in political Washington, the term "TACO" has acquired a new meaning in Trump's second term.It means "Trump is always out," and to his critics, it means something like this: No matter how much Trump threatens and complains, he eventually quits and is left empty-handed.

Coincidence or a quirk of history: Trump's latest ultimatum, which apparently threatened to destroy Iranian civilization, expired on Tuesday.Just 88 minutes before the United States launched a potentially devastating and war-crime attack on civilian Iranian infrastructure, Trump abruptly announced a cease-fire.

But there's clearly more to this wonderful Taco Tuesday than just coincidence.It is unlikely that the US president changed his mind spontaneously.There is plenty of evidence that a mix of economic pressure, political resistance and lack of strategic planning forced him to find a way out of the war in Iran.

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Ein Krieg, den Trump womöglich selbst nie ganz wollte

The path to this war was complicated from the start.For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged Washington to take joint military action against Iran.A new New York Times investigation reveals that Israeli intelligence and military officials laid out their rationale for attacking Iran directly to Trump in top-secret meetings at the White House.

But many high-ranking officials in the U.S. governmentIt is doubtful whether the Israeli strategy will work.Many consider it unrealistic to expect a military attack to ignite a popular uprising in Iran and topple the regime.

Vice President J.D. Vance, who was now supposed to lead the peace negotiations, was among the skeptical voices.He was clearly against the attack from the beginning.These internal tensions may become more important when the consequences of war threaten to spiral out of control.As the political and economic costs have risen, so has the president's willingness to consider withdrawal.

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they have become markets

Political beliefs, loyalty to Israel and misjudgments about his own effectiveness may have led Donald Trump to this war.Despite the eloquent threats in his social media posts, he could no longer ignore the very real economic effects.This was evidenced by numerous slogans of perseverance addressed to the own population.

After five weeks of war, the conflict began to shake not only oil prices, but the entire world economy.Even more so because of the great importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a ship through which a large part of the world's oil trade passes and through which Iran could not pass hundreds of ships with little effort.

Since the beginning of the war, world oil prices have increased by almost 70 percent, and America has also suffered.The price of gasoline in the United States has reached four dollars a gallon.The value is reminiscent of the crisis period during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In financial markets around the world, fears grew that a protracted war could trigger a global energy shock and another recession.Trump's frequent social media posts contributed to dizzying turmoil in the markets, with the president having a zigzagging effect on stock prices.How much the situation in the markets is related to the situation in Iran was revealed again when Trump finally announced the ceasefire.The markets immediately calmed down and the price of oil went well below the $100 per barrel mark.

Pressure from your own party

In Washington, political resistance to this war was strong from the start, especially in his own camp.Since the start of the war, Trump, who has always promised to keep the US out of future wars, has opened up a dangerous debate for him, especially in his own political camp.Parts of his own power base felt increasingly betrayed.

The protests reached a peak recently when Trump threatened that "all civilization will die tonight" if Iran is not able to.The announcement also surprised loyal Republicans.Senator Ron Johnson warned that the attack on public infrastructure was "a big mistake."Congressman Nathaniel Moran warned that this practice undermines the principles that have led to America's long-standing war.

Influential voices from the MAGA scene have also openly discussed whether the president has gone too far on podcasts, livestreams and social media.Some even mentioned the possibility of the so-called 25th Amendment, disqualifying the President

And all this in a mid-term election year for the US Congress, where Republicans depend on every vote.Trump's withdrawal from the Iran war could come in time to put the risky and expensive undertaking with economic ramifications behind him by the end of the year.

Diplomatic route

According to U.S. media reports, the immediate cause of the ceasefire finally came through international negotiations.Therefore, Pakistan proposed the following solution: Iran should reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping for planned US attacks.Direct talks between the warring parties are scheduled this week in the capital, Islamabad.

Trump learned of the proposal just hours before his destruction ultimatum expired.In the evening, he announced on social media that the US would refrain from attacking Iran for two weeks as long as it allowed safe passage through the corridor.Under mounting economic and political pressure, the US president concluded that the proposal offered him what he needed: a way out without losing face.

Despite Trump's claim of a "total and complete victory," the reality is still troubling.Almost none of the initial goals of the war were achieved.Before the war, the government had set ambitious goals, including destroying Iran's nuclear program, destroying its missiles and drones, ending support for local militias, and toppling the regime.

None of them have been consistently successful so far.Iran still has large stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, which was originally used as a source of war.The biggest problem: Tehran may have learned something new and has more influence on the future of the world economy than ever before.The government now knows it can make informed decisions about access to the Strait of Hormuz.

The war has weakened Iran

Although this may only be a temporary success, Trump and Netanyahu have nevertheless achieved one thing: the attacks have caused significant damage to Iran.Over five weeks, US and Israeli forces bombed thousands of military targets.In doing so, they destroyed vital infrastructure, weakened the Iranian military and killed dozens of leaders, most notably the religious leader Ali Khamenei.

In addition, there is a lack of so-called Iranian-backed militias.Both Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been heavily defeated in recent weeks and months.One thing must be clear: the government and its allies must lick their wounds.

two weeks time

One thing the world has in common now is time.The termination gives negotiators two weeks in which they can try to find a solution to the main causes of the conflict.Iran's nuclear program, missile arsenal and control over the Strait of Hormuz are still on the table.

However, the positions are far apart.Iran's first proposal calls for sanctions relief, compensation and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, among other things.This means Trump now faces a challenge: he may have neutralized a war he himself started, with its direct consequences for now.However, if the negotiations fail, the crisis will continue to worsen.

The consequences of the war against Iran, which Trump often describes as a "short trip", from the world and the withdrawal from the United States, cannot yet be calculated.Critics already fear that Trump has done irreparable damage to America's reputation, and thus its deterrence power.What this means: Trump is not going to scare anyone in the future.

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Trump's "TACO Tuesday" may be the opposite of his usual cheap lunch menu.The short- and long-term costs of war may be greater than he cares to admit.

- Personal research

- Bloomberg.com: "Trump's Taco Tuesday in the US and Iran still plunges into chaos" (English, paid)

- nytimes.com: "How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran" (Englisch, kostenpflichtig)

- wsj.com: "The day Trump's Iran threat gripped the world" (English, paid)

- newrepublic.com: "No one is intimidated by Trump anymore" (English)

- foreignpolicy.com: "Will Trump attack or TACO?"(English)