Hungary: After 16 years in power, Orban is now facing a major defeat - online

People's rights activist Viktor Orban has ruled Hungary for 16 years.In the parliamentary elections on April 12 he is in danger of losing to his opponent Peter Magyar.What does this mean for Europe?

After 16 years in power, Orbán was threatened with the cancellation of the election.

Just over a week before Hungary's parliamentary elections on April 12, Peter Madjar, prime minister Viktor Orbán's rival, is in turbo campaign mode.The 45-year-old lawyer goes out four to six times a day - in villages, small towns and big cities.

For example, at the beginning of the week in Gyula, a small town on the southeast border with Romania.A sea of ​​light from smartphone lights greeted the shooting star, which could drive right-wing populist Orban from power after 16 years.In independent polls, his Party for Respect and Freedom (Tisza) far outperformed the Youth Democratic Alliance (Fidesz) led by Orban.

The stage is in front of the magnificent medieval castle of Gyula."Aad a Tisza!"- "The Tisza is swelling," chants the crowd.Because Tisza also means the river Tisza in Hungarian.

The dpa reporter believes it was a call from 1,500 voices.It's a big number for a city of 32,000 people, but it's typical of Peter Magyar's works.Even in small villages, 100 to 200 followers gather on his arrival.

Criticizing corruption and government failure

"We stand at the gates of victory!" He shouts in the sea of ​​lights.Magar speaks in staccato, while his words are famous and rich in imagery, his sentences are clear and memorable.He criticizes the corruption and failure of the Orbán government and his supporters, but adds: "We have no problem with Fidesz voters, only with the political mafia that has taken over our country."

The elections on April 12 are considered the most important since the transition to democracy in 1989/1990. During his 16 years in power, Orbán, who is close to Moscow, has dismantled democracy in Hungary and largely controlled the media and the judiciary by creating a patronage system, according to his critics.

Magyar Orban may be the last chance to get rid of the system, says 52-year-old machinist Robert, a Gyula listener.There is no guarantee that he will perform better."But if we don't try, we can only dream until the end of our days: what if...?" he adds.

Why Magyar Orbán can be dangerous

Magyar is different from Hungarian politics.He left power and married ex-Justice Minister Judit Varga - whose career at Fidesz collapsed due to an amnesty case related to helping a home guardian for delinquent children.

Magyar joined Fidesz as a teenager, a fan of Viktor Orbán, who first ruled from 1998 to 2002.In his mid-thirties, he proclaimed the revival of Hungary's middle class, and today his populist rhetoric focuses on the poor and undereducated classes who depend on the state.

In February 2024, Magir broke with his former idol. His withdrawal from the Fidesz empire angered many people.His first meeting in Budapest was attended by more than 100,000 people.He began to travel around the country tirelessly in an old pick-up truck.

Later, he visited the most remote villages on foot or by kayak - along the Tisza River.He met people who had not visited a top politician in living memory.He inspired hope.People in their lives are trapped in the system of the local ruler Fidesz and their preferences expect the necessary changes from him.

Why hasn't the Hungarian won convincingly yet?

Opinion polls show a clear picture and clear trends - the gap between Tisa and Fidesz is increasing recently.

But the Hungarian electoral system can be severely distorted; it clearly serves Fidesz's needs.106 of the 199 mandates were awarded in individual constituencies.They were subdivided so that the more opposition cities were subdivided into several districts, each including several rural areas where Fidesz was more inclined.

"A situation is possible," said poll researcher Robert Laszlo from the political tank, "In which Tisza has one to three percent more votes than Fidesz - and even Fidesz has a lot of parliamentary mandates."

What could Orbán do after winning the Tisa elections?

In constituencies where the results are close, Orban can lead.Theoretically, it is conceivable that before the new parliament is formed, it will call the old one to change the constitution by bringing two thirds of Fidesz which will make it difficult for the Hungarians to rule.

But politically, this will be extremely risky.This would also be effective if he declared the entire voting process invalid due to accusations of "foreign manipulation," said electoral researcher Laszlo.

Recently, however, there have been increasing signs that Orban will concede an electoral victory to the opposition.He said that he has always been in the opposition.

It depends a lot on Tisza's leadership if he wins the election. Orban has placed his followers in important positions such as the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, the High Public Prosecutor's Office and the media management, only two-thirds of the vote can remove them from their positions.

He could gamble to stop the Magyar government with the help of these organizations to show the new government as incompetent and eventually return after four years.

What the Hungarian head of government means to Europe

Relations with the EU can only improve under Hungary.Peter Kreko of Political Capital puts it this way: "Under Orbán, Hungary has become a traitor to the EU."If Tisa were to win and become prime minister with the Hungarians, a "friendlier tone" would first be established and a "constructive relationship" would develop.

Members of the Tisza party who will be elected to the European Parliament in 2024 will belong to the European People's Party (EPP), where the CDU and CSU are also politically at home.Magyar met Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.He recently said he wanted to make his first foreign visit to Warsaw, Brussels and Vienna.

Magyar criticizes Orbán's government's close proximity to Moscow."Hungary is part of NATO, Hungary is part of the European community," he emphasizes again and again.At the same time, however, he does not indicate any concessions on Ukraine, which Russia has invaded - an issue made toxic by Orbán's mass media propaganda.

Magyar's election promises include tax cuts and pension increases.However, he will not be able to quickly restore the constitutional situation that Orban has turned inside out.To do so, he needs a two-thirds majority in parliament because a number of controversial regulations have constitutional status.

Ein vereinnahmter Staat?

At the end of March, a delegation of observers from the Council of Europe expressed surprisingly clear doubts about the democratic electoral process.Questions were raised about whether the country was still a functioning democracy or one that had been taken over by one party, said the head of the delegation, Pablo Hispán.

After Easter, Orban also wants to make the final push - and rely on the help of US Vice President JD Vance, who is visiting him for two days.In his speech, Vance wants to talk about the "rich partnership" between the two countries, which was announced by the White House.

Background: Orban has long had good relations not only with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin but also with US President Donald Trump.However, poll analysts assumed that Vance's visit would not affect the nature of the campaign.