Mar 05, 2026
3 min read
High stakes have been placed on prediction platforms such as Polymarket ahead of military strikes against Iran.This fuels suspicions of insider knowledge.
Suspicion of insider knowledge: rich because they bet on attacks
High stakes are placed on prediction platforms like Polymarket ahead of military strikes against Iran.This raises doubts about insider knowledge.
After the Iranian airstrikes, the United States and Israel not only turned most of the Middle East into a war zone, but also made some people a lot of money.A few hours before the military strike, three-digit tickets were generated on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.The possibility of overthrowing the assassinated Iranian president Ali Hamini became very popular among the users of the platform.
Profit from betting on war falls into a moral and regulatory gray area.Therefore, members of the Democratic Party of the US Congress are demanding a ban on this type of betting.
"It's legal," Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote in a post on the social media channel."I will introduce a bill to ban it as soon as possible." He also claimed that people close to US President Donald Trump "will profit from war and death".Although Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr.
With his announcement, the senator from Connecticut responded to the analysis of the company Bubblemaps.According to the investigation, six users made $1.2 million in winnings after placing bets just hours before the attack.
Khamenei is betting on the dismissal of A
According to the Reuters news agency, bets worth almost $530 million were made on the Polymarket platform, linked to the attack on Iran.Another $150 million was spent to overthrow Iranian leader Ali Khamenei.
Democrats are particularly concerned that forecasting platforms, with their seemingly limitless betting potential, could fuel conflicts and encourage insider trading."Prediction markets cannot be exploited by prior knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency and oversight," said Rep. Mike Levin, a Democrat.
But for economist Robin Hanson, these markets are not easy to control."All professional groups and organizations that depend on sharing information face the risk that people will be tricked into revealing the secrets they had promised to keep," he said in an interview with TAZ.
According to Hanson, if government and military personnel are banned from betting on prediction platforms, they should not be allowed to talk to reporters because they could also leak secrets.
The George Mason University economist, who studies economic regulation and futures markets, is not against sanctions, even if the bet is on military actions that can put American troops at risk.But he supports "the same rule for everyone."
Prediction markets have grown in popularity since the 2024 US election.However, they operate in a regulatory gray area.Plans are already in place to change this.
US commodity laws prohibit trading on the basis of death and war because such gambling brings financial rewards to violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.It is not yet legally clear whether stock markets fall under these rules.
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